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prosper.py
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4297 lines (3983 loc) · 175 KB
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from math import log, log10, sqrt, exp, pi
from typing import Any
from dateutil import parser as dateparser
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from dataclasses import dataclass
@dataclass
class Flare:
longitude: float
magnitude: float
fclass: str
start: datetime
@dataclass
class CME:
width: float
velocity: float
start: datetime
def sepprobs(triggers: list[dict[str, Flare | CME]]) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
sep_probabilities = []
# keep only the triggers for which a prediction hasn't already been produced
for triggerset in triggers:
flare = triggerset["flare"]
cme = triggerset["cme"]
if flare is not None and cme is not None:
# Flare & CME
if flare.longitude >= 20:
# Well Connected Flare
if cme.width == 360:
# Halo CME
# E>10 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_10 = 3.15780115128
sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.17488001287
pdf_halo_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_10 = -4.30615707813
wc_sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.77544026801
pdf_wc_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_10 = 2.91011047363
sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.22652350366
p_halo_not_sep_10 = 0.61870504
pdf_halo_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hns_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_10 = -5.47723640282
wc_sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.40369972744
pdf_wc_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.4680851 * pdf_halo_sep_10 * pdf_wc_sep_10
term2 = term1 + (
0.53191489 * pdf_halo_not_sep_10 * pdf_wc_not_sep_10
)
p_sep_10 = term1 / term2
# E>30 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_30 = 3.18264794350
sigma_log_hs_30 = 0.17392908037
pdf_halo_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_30 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_30 = -4.16030931293
wc_sigma_log_hs_30 = 0.77491862688
pdf_wc_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_30 = 2.91011047363
sigma_log_hns_30 = 0.22652350366
p_halo_not_sep_30 = 0.61870504
pdf_halo_not_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hns_30 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_30 = -5.47723640282
wc_sigma_log_hns_30 = 0.40369972744
pdf_wc_not_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | SEP10-30)
p_nhalo_sep_10_30 = 0.061151079
mean_log_hs_10_30 = 3.04670405388
sigma_log_hs_10_30 = 0.08136505634
pdf_halo_sep_10_30 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hs_10_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP10-30)
wc_mean_log_hs_10_30 = -4.78902523009
wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30 = 0.60458977795
pdf_wc_sep_10_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_10_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.4680851 * pdf_halo_sep_30 * pdf_wc_sep_30
term2 = (
term1
+ (0.53191489 * pdf_halo_not_sep_30 * pdf_wc_not_sep_30)
+ (0.053191489 * pdf_halo_sep_10_30 * pdf_wc_sep_10_30)
)
p_sep_30 = term1 / term2
# E>60 MeV
p_sep_60 = 0
# E>100 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_100 = 3.22216272354
sigma_log_hs_100 = 0.17536236346
pdf_halo_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_100 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_100 = -3.94288784905
wc_sigma_log_hs_100 = 0.71734976905
pdf_wc_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP10-100)
mean_log_hs_10_100 = -4.68866759299
sigma_log_hs_10_100 = 0.61025004699
pdf_halo_sep_10_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* sigma_log_hs_10_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - mean_log_hs_10_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | SEP10-100)
mean_log_nhs_10_100 = 3.10820102692
sigma_log_nhs_10_100 = 0.14900480211
pdf_nhalo_sep_10_100 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_nhs_10_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_nhs_10_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_nhs_10_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_100 = 2.91011047363
sigma_log_hns_100 = 0.22652350366
p_halo_not_sep_100 = 0.61870504
pdf_halo_not_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hns_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_100 = -5.46471549786
wc_sigma_log_hns_100 = 0.40609458630
pdf_wc_not_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.287234 * pdf_halo_sep_100 * pdf_wc_sep_100
term2 = (
term1
+ (0.712765 * pdf_halo_not_sep_100 * pdf_wc_not_sep_100)
+ (0.18085106 * pdf_nhalo_sep_10_100 * pdf_halo_sep_10_100)
)
p_sep_100 = term1 / term2
# E>300 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_300 = 3.29878282547
sigma_log_hs_300 = 0.11873473972
pdf_halo_sep_300 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_300 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_300 = -3.45311151509
wc_sigma_log_hs_300 = 0.47153478691
pdf_wc_sep_300 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_300
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP10-300)
mean_log_hs_10_300 = -4.23701745383
sigma_log_hs_10_300 = 0.48230103188
p_halo_sep_10_300 = 0.068269977
pdf_halo_sep_10_300 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* sigma_log_hs_10_300
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - mean_log_hs_10_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | SEP10-300)
mean_log_hs_10_300 = 3.13173818588
sigma_log_hs_10_300 = 0.16359749436
######################## BUG: Maybe an error???? line 546 in IDL file (flare + cme)
pdf_halo_wc_sep_10_300 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* sigma_log_hs_10_300
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - mean_log_hs_10_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_300 = 2.91011047363
sigma_log_hns_300 = 0.22652350366
p_halo_not_sep_300 = 0.61870504
pdf_halo_not_sep_300 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hns_300
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_300 = -5.46471549786
wc_sigma_log_hns_300 = 0.40609458630
pdf_wc_not_sep_300 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_300
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_300)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_300)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.12698413 * pdf_halo_sep_30 * pdf_wc_sep_30
term2 = (
term1
+ (0.87301587 * pdf_halo_not_sep_30 * pdf_wc_not_sep_30)
+ (
0.47619048
* pdf_halo_wc_sep_10_300
* pdf_halo_sep_10_300
)
)
p_sep_300 = term1 / term2
# Advanced Warnign Time (AWT) in minutes for each integral energy for Non Halo CMEs
awt_10 = 189.78 # mean value from statistics
awt_30 = 170.35 # dummy
awt_60 = 132.58 # dummy
awt_100 = 112.72 # dummy
awt_300 = 98.32 # dummy
# Errors (1 sigma), (2 sigma), (3 sigma) for each energy for Non Halo CMEs
p_error_10 = (0.019044089, 0.016825785, 0.015605077)
p_error_30 = (0.0017833936, 0.0014276593, 0.0012886692)
p_error_60 = (0.00029824883, 0.00040755684, 0.00049231248)
p_error_100 = (0.0050464103, 0.0037166936, 0.0032635845)
p_error_300 = (None, None, None)
elif 120 <= cme.width < 360:
# Partial Halo CME
# E>10 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_10 = 3.02453112602
sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.23913200200
pdf_halo_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_10 = -4.30615707813
wc_sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.77544026801
pdf_wc_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_10 = 2.74093413353
sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.22231969237
p_halo_not_sep_10 = 0.90886700
pdf_halo_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hns_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_10 = -5.47723640282
wc_sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.40369972744
pdf_wc_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.15789474 * pdf_halo_sep_10 * pdf_wc_sep_10
term2 = term1 + (
0.84210526 * pdf_halo_not_sep_10 * pdf_wc_not_sep_10
)
p_sep_10 = term1 / term2
# E>30 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_30 = 3.02310156822
sigma_log_hs_30 = 0.25269654393
pdf_halo_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_30 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_30 = -4.16030931293
wc_sigma_log_hs_30 = 0.77491862688
pdf_wc_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_30 = 2.74093413353
sigma_log_hns_30 = 0.22231969237
p_halo_not_sep_30 = 0.90886700
pdf_halo_not_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hns_30 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_30 = -5.47723640282
wc_sigma_log_hns_30 = 0.40369972744
pdf_wc_not_sep_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | SEP10-30)
mean_log_hs_10_30 = 2.98286390305
sigma_log_hs_10_30 = 0.20173968375
pdf_halo_sep_10_30 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hs_10_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP10-30)
wc_mean_log_hs_10_30 = -4.78902523009
wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30 = 0.60458977795
pdf_wc_sep_10_30 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_10_30)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_10_30)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.13815789 * pdf_halo_sep_30 * pdf_wc_sep_30
term2 = (
term1
+ (0.86184211 * pdf_halo_not_sep_30 * pdf_wc_not_sep_30)
+ (0.019736842 * pdf_halo_sep_10_30 * pdf_wc_sep_10_30)
)
p_sep_30 = term1 / term2
# E>60 MeV
p_sep_60 = 0
# E>100 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_100 = 3.04320573807
sigma_log_hs_100 = 0.20936892927
pdf_halo_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_100 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_100 = -3.94288784905
wc_sigma_log_hs_100 = 0.71734976905
pdf_wc_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP10-100)
mean_log_hs_10_100 = -4.68866759299
sigma_log_hs_10_100 = 0.61025004699
pdf_wc_sep_10_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* sigma_log_hs_10_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - mean_log_hs_10_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | SEP10-100)
mean_log_hs_10_100 = 3.00515580177
sigma_log_hs_10_100 = 0.24573022127
pdf_halo_sep_10_100 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hs_10_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_100 = 2.74093413353
sigma_log_hns_100 = 0.22231969237
p_halo_not_sep_100 = 0.90886700
pdf_halo_not_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
cme.velocity
* sigma_log_hns_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_100 = -5.46471549786
wc_sigma_log_hns_100 = 0.40609458630
pdf_wc_not_sep_100 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_100
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_100)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_100)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.059210526 * pdf_halo_sep_100 * pdf_wc_sep_100
term2 = (
term1
+ (0.940789474 * pdf_halo_not_sep_100 * pdf_wc_not_sep_100)
+ (0.098684211 * pdf_halo_sep_10_100 * pdf_wc_sep_10_100)
)
p_sep_100 = term1 / term2
# E>300 MeV
p_sep_300 = 0
# Advanced Warnign Time (AWT) in minutes for each integral energy for Non Halo CMEs
awt_10 = 189.78 # mean value from statistics
awt_30 = 170.35 # dummy
awt_60 = 132.58 # dummy
awt_100 = 112.72 # dummy
awt_300 = 98.32 # dummy
# Errors (1 sigma), (2 sigma), (3 sigma) for each energy for Non Halo CMEs
p_error_10 = (0.019044089, 0.016825785, 0.015605077)
p_error_30 = (0.0017833936, 0.0014276593, 0.0012886692)
p_error_60 = (0.00029824883, 0.00040755684, 0.00049231248)
p_error_100 = (0.0050464103, 0.0037166936, 0.0032635845)
p_error_300 = (None, None, None)
else:
# Non Halo CME
# E>10 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_10 = 2.82257556915
sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.27493494749
pdf_halo_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hs_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | SEP)
wc_mean_log_hs_10 = -4.30615707813
wc_sigma_log_hs_10 = 0.77544026801
pdf_wc_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hs_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hs_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hs_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(V | NOT SEP)
mean_log_hns_10 = 2.56826519966
sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.22966578603
p_halo_not_sep_10 = 0.99501992
pdf_halo_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (cme.velocity * sigma_log_hns_10 * log(10) * sqrt(2 * pi))
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(cme.velocity) - mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# P(F | NOT SEP)
wc_mean_log_hns_10 = -5.47723640282
wc_sigma_log_hns_10 = 0.40369972744
pdf_wc_not_sep_10 = (
1.0
/ (
flare.magnitude
* wc_sigma_log_hns_10
* log(10)
* sqrt(2 * pi)
)
) * exp(
-(
(
(log10(flare.magnitude) - wc_mean_log_hns_10)
/ (sqrt(2) * wc_sigma_log_hns_10)
)
** 2
)
)
# Probability of SEP occurrence based on V, F P(SEP | V, F)
# P(SEP | V, F) = P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) / P(SEP) P(V | SEP) P (F | SEP) + P(NOT SEP) P(V | NOT SEP) P (F |NOT SEP)
term1 = 0.0067057837 * pdf_halo_sep_10 * pdf_wc_sep_10
term2 = term1 + (
0.9932942163 * pdf_halo_not_sep_10 * pdf_wc_not_sep_10
)
p_sep_10 = term1 / term2
# E>30 MeV
# P(V | SEP)
mean_log_hs_30 = 2.87594962120
sigma_log_hs_30 = 0.29943174124
pdf_halo_sep_30 = (
1.0